Analyzing the Setup
In a binomial distribution, the mean is defined as μ=np and the variance is defined as σ2=npq. We are given the sum and the product of these two parameters:
The Master Equation
When given the sum S and product P of two quantities, they serve as the roots of the quadratic equation t2−St+P=0. Substituting our values, we obtain:
Factoring this quadratic, we look for two numbers that multiply to 128 and add to 24. These numbers are 16 and 8. Thus, the roots are t=16 and t=8.
Applying Physical Constraints
We must determine which value corresponds to the mean and which to the variance. Recall that the variance is σ2=npq, where q is the probability of failure (0<q<1).
Because q<1, it follows that npq<np. Therefore, the mean must be the larger value, and the variance must be the smaller value:
Solving for Parameters
We find q by taking the ratio of the variance to the mean:
Since p+q=1, we find p=1−21=21. Substituting p=21 into the mean equation np=16:
Final Calculation
We calculate the probability of one or two successes using the binomial formula P(X=r)=(rn)prqn−r:
For
r=1:
P(X=1)=(132)(21)1(21)31=32⋅2321
For
r=2:
P(X=2)=(232)(21)2(21)30=232×31⋅2321=496⋅2321
Summing these probabilities:
P(X=1)+P(X=2)=23232+496=232528
Factoring 528 as 33×16 (or 33×24), we simplify the expression to reach the final answer: