The Beauty of Discrete Probability
Welcome, fellow traveler on the JEE journey. Today, we are going to unravel a problem that might look like simple algebra, but it is actually a beautiful dance of logic and constraints.
We are dealing with a discrete random variable X that takes values in the set {1,2,3,4,5}. Each of these outcomes has a probability attached to it, defined by an unknown constant K. Our mission is to find the probability that X is strictly greater than 2.
Phase 1
The Law of Total Probability
Before we dive into the calculations, let's ground ourselves in the most fundamental rule of probability: the Law of Total Probability. Imagine you are looking at a set of bars on a graph, where each bar represents the probability of an outcome.
If these bars represent all possible outcomes, their total height must be exactly 1. Mathematically, we express this as:
This is our master key. Without this, we are lost in a sea of variables. We sum up our given probabilities:
Phase 2
The Quadratic Challenge
Now, let's clean up this equation. We group the like terms together. We have K2 terms and K terms.
Combining them, we get 6K2+5K=1. Moving the 1 to the left side, we arrive at the standard quadratic form:
This is where many students rush and make a mistake. We need to factor this carefully. We are looking for two numbers that multiply to −6 and add to 5. Those numbers are 6 and −1.
So, we split the middle term:
Factoring this, we get (6K−1)(K+1)=0. This gives us two potential values for K:
Phase 3
The Physical Reality
Here is where the JEE examiner tests your conceptual depth. We have two mathematical solutions, but do they both make physical sense?
We must check our constraint: P(x)≥0 for all x. If we plug K=−1 back into our probability distribution, we get negative probabilities, which is a physical impossibility.
Thus, we must reject K=−1 and accept K=61 as our only valid constant.
Phase 4
The Final Calculation
With K=61 in our toolkit, we can now tackle the target: P(X>2). This condition includes the outcomes X=3, X=4, and X=5.
We sum their probabilities:
P(3)+P(4)+P(5)=K+2K+5K2=3K+5K2
Now, we substitute K=61 into this expression:
This simplifies to:
To add these, we convert 63 to 3618. Finally:
Conclusion
And there you have it! The probability is 3623.
The journey from the abstract sum of probabilities to the final fraction is a testament to the power of systematic thinking. Always remember: in JEE, the math is just the language; the logic is the story. Keep practicing, stay curious, and never stop questioning the 'why' behind the equations.