The Foundation
Conservation of Probability
Every probability distribution obeys a sacred law: the sum of all probabilities must be exactly 1. We write this as ∑P(X)=1.
By summing our probabilities:
31+K+61+41=1
Using a common denominator of
12, this becomes:
124+2+3+K=1⇒129+K=1⇒43+K=1
Thus, we find the missing piece: K=41.
The Statistical Toolkit
Mean and Variance
The mean, or expected value
μ=E[X], is the weighted average of all possible outcomes. We calculate it as:
μ=∑X⋅P(X)=(α⋅31)+(1⋅41)+(0⋅61)+(−3⋅41)
Simplifying this expression, we obtain:
μ=3α+41−43=3α−21
Next, we calculate the expected value of the square,
E[X2]=∑X2⋅P(X):
E[X2]=(α2⋅31)+(12⋅41)+(02⋅61)+((−3)2⋅41)=3α2+41+49=3α2+25
The Algebraic Bridge
We are given the condition
σ−μ=2, which we rewrite as
σ=μ+2. Squaring both sides yields:
σ2=(μ+2)2=μ2+4μ+4
We know the fundamental identity
σ2=E[X2]−μ2. By equating these two expressions for
σ2:
E[X2]−μ2=μ2+4μ+4⇒E[X2]=2μ2+4μ+4
This is the master equation that connects our statistical variables to the unknown α.
The Resolution
Substituting our expressions for
μ and
E[X2] into the master equation:
3α2+25=2(3α−21)2+4(3α−21)+4
Expanding the right side and simplifying the terms:
3α2+25=2(9α2−3α+41)+34α−2+4
3α2+25=92α2−32α+21+34α+2
Rearranging the terms leads to:
9α2−32α=0⇒α(9α−32)=0
Assuming $\alpha
eq 0$ for a distinct distribution, we conclude α=6.
With α=6, we find μ=36−21=1.5. Using our condition σ=μ+2, we get σ=3.5.
Finally, the sum is:
σ+μ=3.5+1.5=5