Analyzing the Setup
Welcome, my dear student. Today, we are going to peel back the layers of a classic probability problem. Often, when you see a table filled with variables like k, it is easy to feel a sense of dread.
But I want you to look at this table not as a source of confusion, but as a puzzle waiting to be solved. We have a discrete random variable x and a set of probabilities defined by an unknown constant k. Our mission is to find the probability of a specific range of outcomes, but first, we must identify k.
The Fundamental Axiom
The Conservation of Probability
Think of the entire probability distribution as a complete, closed system. If you were to list every single possible outcome of an experiment and add up their individual probabilities, the sum must equal 1.
This is the fundamental axiom of probability:
It is the bedrock upon which all of statistics is built. Without this, the entire structure collapses. So, let us apply this to our table by setting the sum of all probabilities to 1:
0+2k+k+3k+2k2+2k+(k2+k)+7k2=1
The Quadratic Battle
Now, let us bring order to this chaos by grouping the terms by their powers of k. First, the quadratic terms: 2k2, k2, and 7k2 sum to 10k2.
Next, the linear terms: 2k, k, 3k, 2k, and the k from the bracket (k2+k) sum to 9k. Our equation now stands as:
To solve this, we bring the 1 to the left side, transforming it into the standard quadratic form:
We need to split the middle term by finding two numbers that multiply to −10 and add to 9. Those numbers are 10 and −1. Thus, we rewrite the equation as:
Factoring by grouping, we get (10k−1)(k+1)=0. This yields two potential values for k:
The Reality Check
Here is where the true mathematician separates themselves from the calculator. We have two roots, but we must determine if they are physically meaningful.
Probability cannot be negative. If we test k=−1, we find that P(1)=2(−1)=−2, which is an impossibility. We must reject k=−1 and embrace k=0.1.
The Final Target
The question asks for P(3<x≤6). We must be precise with our boundaries; the inequality 3<x≤6 tells us to exclude 3 but include 6.
Thus, we are looking for the sum of probabilities for x=4,5,6:
P(4)+P(5)+P(6)=2k2+2k+(k2+k)=3k2+3k
Substituting our value k=0.1 into the expression:
3(0.1)2+3(0.1)=3(0.01)+0.3=0.03+0.3=0.33
And there you have it! Through careful summation, algebraic rigor, and a healthy dose of physical intuition, we have arrived at the final answer: 0.33.