Analyzing the Setup
Imagine you are standing in front of a box containing 100 tickets, each uniquely numbered from 1 to 100. You are asked to reach in and select two tickets at random.
In a standard scenario, the total number of ways to pick these tickets would be (2100). However, the problem introduces a powerful constraint: "It is given that the maximum number on the two chosen tickets is not more than 10."
In the world of probability, "given" is a magical word. It acts as a filter, a lens that narrows your vision. Because we know the maximum is at most 10, any pair containing a number like 11, 50, or 99 is now impossible.
They have been wiped from existence in our current reality. Our new universe is restricted to the set S′={1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10}.
The Anatomy of the Sample Space
Now that we have defined our new universe, we must determine the size of this restricted sample space. We are choosing 2 tickets from these 10 available numbers.
The number of ways to do this is given by the combination formula:
n(A)=(210)
Calculating this, we get:
n(A)=2×110×9=45
This number, 45, is the denominator of our probability. It represents every possible pair of tickets that could exist under the given condition.
The Favorable Event
The Hunt for the Minimum
Now, we turn our attention to the specific event we are interested in: the minimum number on the two tickets must be exactly 5. Let this be Event B.
We are looking for the intersection of our two conditions: A∩B. This means we need pairs where the maximum is ≤10 AND the minimum is 5.
If the minimum is 5, one of your tickets MUST be 5. The other ticket must be greater than 5 to ensure that 5 remains the minimum. If the other ticket were, say, 4, then 4 would be the minimum, not 5.
So, the second ticket must be in the set {6,7,8,9,10}.
The Final Calculation
We have 5 options for that second ticket: 6, 7, 8, 9, or 10. Each of these, when paired with 5, creates a valid set where the minimum is 5 and the maximum is ≤10.
Thus, there are exactly 5 favorable outcomes:
n(A∩B)=(15)=5
Finally, we apply the definition of conditional probability:
P(B∣A)=n(A)n(A∩B)
Substituting our values, we get:
P(B∣A)=455
Simplifying this fraction, we arrive at the elegant result: 91.
This problem teaches us that probability is not just about counting; it is about understanding the boundaries of the space you are working in. When you encounter a "given" condition, embrace the restriction—it makes the math simpler, not harder.