Sigma Percentile
JEE Advanced 1989
LEVELJEE Main

Animated Solution for Mathematics - Probability: A pair of fair dice is rolled together till a sum of either 5 or 7 is obtained. Then the probability that 5 comes before 7 is .........

Visualized Solution

Visualizing the Sample Space

  • Total outcomes for rolling two fair dice = .
  • The game continues until the sum is either or .

Identifying Event : Sum is

  • Let be the event that the sum is .
  • Outcomes for : .

Calculating Probability of Event

  • Probability of getting a sum of on a single roll:

Identifying Event : Sum is

  • Let be the event that the sum is .
  • Outcomes for : .

Calculating Probability of Event

  • Probability of getting a sum of on a single roll:

The Concept of Relative Probability

  • The trials are independent.
  • We only care about trials where the sum is either or .
  • All other outcomes are ignored as they result in a re-roll.

Applying the Formula

  • Probability that occurs before is given by:

Substituting the Values

  • Substitute the probabilities into the formula:

Simplifying the Expression

  • Simplify the denominator:
  • Cancel the common denominator of :

Final Simplification

  • Reduce the fraction to its simplest form:

The Sigma Insight: Conditional Probability

Solution Diagram

Analyzing the Setup

When you roll two fair, six-sided dice, the total number of outcomes is . Visualize this as a grid where each cell represents an ordered pair .
Every single one of these 36 outcomes is equally likely, with a probability of .

Defining Our Targets

We define Event as rolling a sum of 5. The favorable outcomes are and .
There are exactly 4 favorable outcomes. Thus, the probability of rolling a 5 on any single throw is:
Event is defined as rolling a sum of 7. The favorable outcomes are and .
There are 6 favorable outcomes. Thus, the probability of rolling a 7 on any single throw is:

The Logic of the Reset

The problem states we roll until we get a 5 or a 7. Any roll that results in a sum other than 5 or 7 is essentially a 'reset' button.
These 'neutral' rolls do not advance the game and do not favor either 5 or 7. Consequently, they effectively vanish from our calculation, leaving us with a reduced sample space where only the outcomes of 5 and 7 matter.

The Elegant Ratio

Since we only care about the relative likelihood of versus , we can use the ratio of their probabilities. The probability that occurs before is given by:
This formula is a powerful shortcut. It bypasses the need to sum an infinite geometric series, which would otherwise be expressed as:

Final Calculation

Now, we substitute our calculated values into the ratio:
Since the denominator of 36 appears in every term, it cancels out perfectly. This leaves us with:
Reducing this fraction, we arrive at our final answer:

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