Analyzing the Setup
In this probability space, we are given two independent events, A and B. The probabilities are defined as P(A)=p and P(B)=2p.
Because the events are independent, the occurrence of one does not influence the other. This allows us to define the probability of their intersection as the product of their individual probabilities.
P(A∩B)=P(A)⋅P(B)=p⋅2p=2p2
The Exclusion Principle
We are tasked with finding the probability that exactly one of these events occurs. Geometrically, this corresponds to the regions in a Venn diagram where A occurs without B, and B occurs without A.
To calculate this, we sum the individual probabilities and subtract the intersection twice (once for each event's inclusion of the overlap). The formula is:
P(exactly one)=P(A)+P(B)−2P(A∩B)
The Algebraic Battle
Substituting the known values into our formula, we are given that the probability is 95. This yields the following equation:
Simplifying the expression, we obtain:
Multiplying the entire equation by 9 to clear the fraction, we get:
Rearranging this into the standard quadratic form ax2+bx+c=0, we have:
Solving the Quadratic
To solve for p, we factor the quadratic equation. We seek two numbers that multiply to 36×5=180 and add to −27. These numbers are −15 and −12.
Splitting the middle term:
Factoring by grouping:
Final Selection
Solving the factors gives us two potential candidates for p:
Comparing the two values, where 31=124, we identify the larger value. The final answer is: