Analyzing the Setup
When we say events B1,B2, and B3 are independent, we are saying that the occurrence of one tells us absolutely nothing about the occurrence of the others. They are free spirits in the sample space.
Let us define their probabilities as P(B1)=x, P(B2)=y, and P(B3)=z.
The Translation
From Words to Math
Imagine a Venn diagram. The region representing 'only
B1' is the intersection of
B1 with the complement of
B2 and the complement of
B3. Because of independence, the probability of this intersection is simply the product of the individual probabilities:
α=x(1−y)(1−z)
Similarly, we define:
β=y(1−x)(1−z)
γ=z(1−x)(1−y)
The probability that none of the events occur is the intersection of all complements:
p=(1−x)(1−y)(1−z)
The First Dance
Simplifying the Complex
We are given the equation
(α−2β)p=αβ. Substituting our definitions, we obtain:
[x(1−y)(1−z)−2y(1−x)(1−z)](1−x)(1−y)(1−z)=x(1−y)(1−z)⋅y(1−x)(1−z)
Notice the common factor
(1−z) and the product
(1−x)(1−y)(1−z) appearing on both sides. By dividing both sides by
(1−x)(1−y)(1−z)2, the equation collapses into:
x(1−y)−2y(1−x)=xy
Expanding this gives
x−xy−2y+2xy=xy. The
xy terms cancel out, leaving us with
x−2y=0, or simply:
x=2y
The Second Act
Symmetry in Action
Now, we apply the same logic to the second equation:
(β−3γ)p=2βγ. Substituting our expressions, we get:
[y(1−x)(1−z)−3z(1−x)(1−y)](1−x)(1−y)(1−z)=2[y(1−x)(1−z)⋅z(1−x)(1−y)]
Again, notice the common factor
(1−x). By dividing both sides by
(1−x)2(1−y)(1−z), we are left with:
y(1−z)−3z(1−y)=2yz
Expanding this yields
y−yz−3z+3yz=2yz. The
yz terms cancel out beautifully, leaving
y−3z=0, or:
y=3z
The Final Convergence
We have arrived at the finish line. We know x=2y and y=3z. The question asks for the ratio P(B3)P(B1), which is zx.
Substituting our findings:
x=2(3z)=6z
Therefore, the final ratio is:
zx=6