The Dance of Probability
Unlocking the Inclusion-Exclusion Principle
Welcome, fellow traveler on the path of JEE Advanced mathematics. Today, we are not just solving a problem; we are exploring the elegant, interconnected nature of probability.
Often, when we look at events A, B, and C, we see them as separate entities. But in the world of probability, they are dancers on a stage, constantly overlapping, influencing, and constraining one another.
Our goal today is to find the 'zone of possibility' for the intersection of B and C, given the constraints of their union.
Phase 1
The Geometry of Overlap
Imagine you have three circles on a piece of paper. If you want to calculate the total area covered by these circles—the union P(A∪B∪C)—you cannot simply add their individual areas.
If you add P(A)+P(B)+P(C), you have counted the pairwise intersections like P(AB) twice. To fix this, we subtract them.
But wait! By subtracting the pairwise intersections, we have now removed the central region—the intersection of all three, P(ABC)—one too many times. So, we must add it back.
This is the heart of the Inclusion-Exclusion Principle:
P(A∪B∪C)=P(A)+P(B)+P(C)−[P(AB)+P(BC)+P(CA)]+P(ABC)
This formula is a correction mechanism for the human tendency to over-count. Let us breathe life into this equation with the values provided: P(A)=0.3, P(B)=0.4, P(C)=0.8, P(AB)=0.08, P(AC)=0.28, and P(ABC)=0.09.
Phase 2
The Algebraic Collapse
Now, let us substitute these values into our master equation. We are simplifying the chaos into order:
P(A∪B∪C)=0.3+0.4+0.8−[0.08+P(BC)+0.28]+0.09
Let us group the constants. First, the positive terms: 0.3+0.4+0.8+0.09=1.59. Now, the negative terms: 0.08+0.28=0.36.
When we subtract these, we get 1.59−0.36=1.23. Suddenly, our complex expression collapses into something beautifully simple:
This is the moment of clarity. We have successfully linked the union of our three events directly to the unknown intersection P(BC).
Phase 3
The Constraint of Reality
Here is where the physics of probability takes over. We are told that P(A∪B∪C)≥0.75. But we also know an implicit truth: the probability of any event cannot exceed 1.
Therefore, we have a 'sandwich' constraint:
Substitute our simplified expression into this inequality:
We are now solving for P(BC). To isolate it, we subtract 1.23 from all parts of the inequality:
Phase 4
The Final Transformation
We are almost at the finish line. We have −P(BC) bounded between −0.48 and −0.23. To find P(BC), we multiply the entire inequality by −1.
Remember, when you multiply an inequality by a negative number, the direction of the inequality signs must flip. It is a fundamental rule of algebra that protects the integrity of the number line:
Rearranging this to the standard format, we arrive at our destination:
We have proven it. The probability of B and C occurring together is not a fixed point, but a range of possibilities dictated by the constraints of the union. You have navigated the Inclusion-Exclusion Principle, handled the algebraic constraints, and emerged with the correct interval.