Analyzing the Setup
Probability is the language of uncertainty, a way to quantify the unknown. When we look at events A and B, we are not just looking at numbers; we are looking at the geometry of possibility.
Imagine a rectangle representing our entire sample space S, where the total probability is P(S)=1. Inside this rectangle, events A and B are like two overlapping circles.
We are given the following values:
P(A)=0.25
P(B)=0.50
P(A∩B)=0.14
Our goal is to find the probability that neither event occurs.
The Addition Theorem
Avoiding the Double-Counting Trap
To find the probability of "neither," we must first understand the probability of "at least one." This is the union P(A∪B).
A common mistake is to simply add P(A) and P(B). If you do that, you are counting the overlapping region P(A∩B) twice—once as part of A and once as part of B.
To correct this, we use the Addition Theorem:
Substituting our values, we get:
Adding 0.25 and 0.50 gives 0.75. Subtracting the intersection 0.14 yields P(A∪B)=0.61. This 0.61 represents the total area covered by the two circles.
De Morgan's Law
The Final Step
The question asks for the probability that neither A nor B occurs. This is the region outside both circles. In set notation, this is A′∩B′.
By De Morgan's Law, this is equivalent to the complement of the union:
Since the total probability is 1, we simply subtract our union from 1:
The beauty of this result lies in its simplicity. By carefully navigating the geometry of the Venn diagram and applying the fundamental theorems of probability, we have turned a complex problem into a clear, logical conclusion.
The final answer is 0.39.