The Architecture of Uncertainty
Welcome, fellow explorer of the mathematical universe! Today, we are not just solving a probability problem; we are peeling back the layers of uncertainty to reveal the hidden structure of events.
Probability is the language of the unknown. In this problem, we are given a set of clues about two events, A and B, living within a sample space S. Our mission is to deduce their nature: are they independent? Are they equally likely?
Phase 1
Unlocking the Hidden Variables
We start with the raw data provided: P(A∪B)=65, P(A∩B)=41, and P(Aˉ)=41.
Before we can analyze the relationship between A and B, we must know their individual probabilities. We are given P(Aˉ), the probability of the complement of A.
The complement rule is one of the most elegant symmetries in probability: an event either happens or it does not. Thus, the sum of their probabilities must be unity. We write this as:
Substituting our known value, we find:
With P(A) in our toolkit, we turn to the Addition Theorem of Probability to find P(B). This theorem is the bridge between the union, the individual events, and their intersection:
We have all the pieces of this puzzle except P(B). Let us substitute the values we have:
Simplifying the right side, we combine the fractions 43−41, which yields 42, or 21. Our equation now stands as:
Solving for P(B) is now a simple matter of subtraction:
P(B)=65−21=65−63=62=31
Phase 2
The Test of Independence
Now that we have established P(A)=43 and P(B)=31, we can test the nature of these events. The JEE loves to test your conceptual clarity on independence.
Two events are independent if, and only if, the probability of their intersection is the product of their individual probabilities:
Let us calculate the product P(A)⋅P(B):
Look at that! The result is exactly 41, which matches the given P(A∩B). The condition is satisfied. We have mathematically proven that events A and B are independent.
Phase 3
The Verdict
Finally, we must determine if the events are 'equally likely.' This is a straightforward comparison. Two events are equally likely if their probabilities are identical, i.e., P(A)=P(B).
Comparing our results:
Since $\frac{3}{4}
eq \frac{1}{3}$, the events are clearly not equally likely.
Conclusion
Through this methodical journey, we have uncovered the truth: the events A and B are independent, but they are not equally likely. This problem serves as a beautiful reminder that in probability, as in life, we must look past the surface to understand the underlying relationships.