Analyzing the Setup
We are given three events,
A,
B, and
C, which are pair-wise independent. This implies the following relationships:
P(A∩B)=P(A)P(B)
P(B∩C)=P(B)P(C)
P(A∩C)=P(A)P(C)
Furthermore, we are given the constraint that the intersection of all three events is empty:
P(A∩B∩C)=0
The Conditional Lens
We aim to calculate the conditional probability P[(Aˉ∩Bˉ)∣C]. By the definition of conditional probability, we have:
P[(Aˉ∩Bˉ)∣C]=P(C)P(Aˉ∩Bˉ∩C)
Our primary objective is to simplify the numerator, P(Aˉ∩Bˉ∩C).
De Morgan's Magic
Using De Morgan's Law, we recognize that Aˉ∩Bˉ=A∪B. Consequently, the numerator can be expressed as:
This represents the region within C that does not overlap with the union of A and B.
The Distributive Dance
We apply the Distributive Law to the term P((A∪B)∩C):
Applying the Inclusion-Exclusion Principle to this union, we obtain:
P((A∩C)∪(B∩C))=P(A∩C)+P(B∩C)−P(A∩B∩C)
The Final Calculation
Given that P(A∩B∩C)=0, the expression simplifies significantly. Substituting the pair-wise independence conditions, we get:
P((A∩C)∪(B∩C))=P(A)P(C)+P(B)P(C)
Substituting this back into our numerator expression:
P(Aˉ∩Bˉ∩C)=P(C)−[P(A)P(C)+P(B)P(C)]
P(Aˉ∩Bˉ∩C)=P(C)[1−P(A)−P(B)]
Finally, dividing by P(C) to complete the conditional probability calculation:
P[(Aˉ∩Bˉ)∣C]=P(C)P(C)[1−P(A)−P(B)]
The final result is 1−P(A)−P(B).