Analyzing the Setup
Imagine you are standing before a table, a fair coin in your hand. You are about to toss it n times. The question asks for the minimum number of tosses required to ensure the probability of getting at least one head is at least 0.9.
At first glance, this might seem like a daunting task. You might be tempted to calculate the probability of getting exactly one head, then two, then three, all the way up to n, and sum them up. But stop! That is the long, winding road.
In probability, whenever you encounter the phrase "at least one," a bell should ring in your mind. It is a signal to use the complement rule. The total probability of all possible outcomes is always 1. If we want the probability of getting at least one head, we can simply subtract the probability of the only outcome we do not want: getting zero heads.
The Power of Independence
What does it mean to get zero heads in n tosses? It means every single toss resulted in a tail. Since each coin toss is an independent event, the outcome of one toss does not influence the next.
The probability of getting a tail on any single toss is P(T)=21. Therefore, the probability of getting tails n times in a row is simply the product of the individual probabilities:
P(All T)=P(T1)×P(T2)×⋯×P(Tn)=(21)n
This is the core geometric reality of the problem. We have reduced a complex summation into a single, clean exponential term.
Solving the Inequality
Now, let us bring in the condition given in the problem: the probability of getting at least one head must be at least 0.9. Using our complement rule, we write:
Substituting our expression for P(All T), we get:
Now, let us perform the algebraic dance to isolate n. Subtracting 0.9 from both sides and moving the exponential term to the right, we find:
To make this easier to handle, let us convert the decimal 0.1 into the fraction 101. So:
Here is where many students stumble. When you take the reciprocal of both sides of an inequality involving positive numbers, the inequality sign must flip. It is a fundamental rule of algebra. Thus, we arrive at:
The Final Leap
We are now at the finish line. We need the smallest integer n such that 2n is at least 10. Let us test the values:
For n=1, 21=2, which is less than 10. For n=2, 22=4, still less than 10. For n=3, 23=8, getting closer, but still less than 10.
Finally, for n=4, 24=16. Sixteen is clearly greater than or equal to 10. The condition is satisfied!
The minimum number of tosses required is 4. This journey shows that even in the face of complex-sounding probability problems, the right strategy—the complement rule—can turn a mountain of work into a simple, elegant calculation.