Analyzing the Setup
We are tasked with finding the conditional probability P(E1∣E2), where E1 is the event that the Indian couple sits together, and E2 is the event that all four American couples sit together at a circular table of ten people.
The formula for conditional probability serves as our guide:
P(E1∣E2)=n(E2)n(E1∩E2)
We do not need the total sample space of all possible arrangements, as the denominator cancels out in the ratio. We only need to count the favorable arrangements for the intersection and the given condition.
Phase 1
The Denominator - The World of E2
To calculate n(E2), we use the Block Method. We treat each of the 4 American couples as a single, inseparable unit.
Since the Indian couple is not restricted by E2, they remain as 2 separate individuals. This gives us a total of 4 blocks + 2 individuals = 6 units to arrange around a circle.
The number of ways to arrange n units in a circle is (n−1)!. Thus, we have (6−1)!=5! ways.
We must also account for the internal arrangements of the 4 American couples. Each couple can swap seats in 2! ways, leading to a factor of 24. Therefore:
Phase 2
The Numerator - The Intersection E1∩E2
In the intersection E1∩E2, both the American couples and the Indian couple must sit together. We now treat the Indian couple as a single block as well.
We have 4 American blocks + 1 Indian block = 5 units to arrange in a circle. The number of circular arrangements is (5−1)!=4!.
Next, we account for the internal arrangements of all 5 couples (4 American + 1 Indian). Each couple can swap seats in 2! ways, giving us a factor of 25. Thus:
Phase 3
The Elegant Cancellation
Now, we substitute our values into the conditional probability formula:
We simplify the expression by observing the powers of 2 and the factorials:
Multiplying these results, we find the final probability:
The probability is 52. By treating the couples as blocks and respecting the circular symmetry, we have successfully navigated the constraints of the problem.