Analyzing the Setup
Imagine you are standing at the threshold of a classic probability problem. You have a binomial distribution B(n,p), and you are given two pieces of information: the sum of its mean and variance is 24, and their product is 128.
For a binomial distribution, the mean is μ=np and the variance is σ2=npq, where q=1−p. We are given the following system of equations:
Decoding the Mean and Variance
This is a classic setup for a quadratic equation. If we let t be a variable representing these two quantities, then the quadratic equation is t2−(Sum)t+(Product)=0.
Substituting our values, we get:
Solving this quadratic equation, we find the roots are 16 and 8.
Now, here is the crucial physical reality check: since q≤1, it must be that np≥npq. Thus, the mean must be np=16 and the variance must be npq=8.
Finding the Parameters
With np=16 and npq=8, we can easily find q by taking the ratio:
Since q=21, it follows that p=1−q=21. Now, substituting p=21 into np=16, we find:
We have successfully decoded the entire distribution parameters as n=32 and p=21.
The Final Calculation
The question asks for P(X>n−3). With n=32, this is P(X>29), which is equivalent to:
Using the binomial formula P(X=r)=nCrprqn−r, and noting that p=q=21, the probability becomes:
P(X>29)=23232C30+32C31+32C32
Calculating the combinations:
The sum is 496+32+1=529. Thus, the final probability is:
Comparing this to the form 2nk, we find k=529.