Analyzing the Setup
Imagine you are standing at a table, holding an ordinary six-sided die. You are about to roll it multiple times. Each roll is a fresh start, an independent event, a tiny universe of chance. This is the essence of the Binomial Distribution.
First, we must define our single trial. When you roll a die, the probability of getting an odd number—1,3, or 5—is p=63=21.
Consequently, the probability of getting an even number is q=1−p=21. Since we are rolling the die n times, we are looking at a sequence of Bernoulli trials where the probability of success and failure are perfectly balanced.
The Algebraic Elegance of Symmetry
The problem presents us with a fascinating condition: the probability of getting an odd number exactly twice is equal to the probability of getting an even number exactly three times. Let X be the random variable representing the number of odd outcomes.
We are given P(X=2)=P(X=3). Using the binomial formula P(X=r)=(rn)prqn−r, we write:
(2n)(21)2(21)n−2=(3n)(21)3(21)n−3
Notice the magic here? Both sides simplify to the following expression:
Because (21)n is never zero, we can divide it away, leaving us with the elegant equality (2n)=(3n).
This is where your intuition should kick in. The property (xn)=(yn) implies that either x=y (which is impossible here, as $2
eq 3$) or x+y=n.
Thus, n=2+3=5. We have cracked the code: the die is rolled exactly five times.
The Final Summation
Now, we need the probability of getting an odd number for an odd number of times. With n=5, this means we need the probability of getting 1,3, or 5 odd numbers.
We calculate the sum:
P(X∈{1,3,5})=(15)(21)5+(35)(21)5+(55)(21)5
Factoring out (21)5, we get:
Evaluating the combinations, we find (15)=5, (35)=10, and (55)=1. The sum is 5+10+1=16.
Finally, we calculate the result:
This result is not a coincidence. Whenever p=q=1/2, the binomial distribution is perfectly symmetric, and the sum of probabilities for odd successes will always be exactly 1/2. You have just mastered a fundamental principle of probability!