The Detective Work of Statistics
Welcome, future engineer! Today, we are going to peel back the layers of a statistical problem that, at first glance, might seem like a dry collection of numbers. Imagine you are a detective with a set of five mysterious observations, and you are given clues about their collective behavior—their mean and their variance.
Your mission is to uncover the hidden properties of just the first four observations. This is not just algebra; this is the art of data reconstruction.
Phase 1
The Mean as a Sum
We have five observations: x1,x2,x3,x4,x5. The problem provides the mean of all five as Xˉ5=524.
Recall the definition of the mean: the sum of all observations divided by the count. Mathematically, this is expressed as:
When we multiply the mean by the number of observations, we get the total sum. For our five observations, the sum is:
This is our first major clue, which we will call Equation 1:
Now, consider the first four observations. Their mean is Xˉ4=27. Using the same logic, their sum is:
This is Equation 2:
The difference between the total sum and the partial sum must be the fifth observation. Subtracting Equation 2 from Equation 1, we find:
We have successfully identified the "fifth element" of our data set.
Phase 2
The Variance Mystery
The variance σ2 is defined as the average of the squared deviations from the mean. To calculate this efficiently, we use the "computational formula":
This formula allows us to work with the sum of squares, ∑xi2, which is much easier to manipulate. For our five observations, we have:
5∑i=15xi2−(524)2=25194
Expanding the square of the mean, we get 25576. Our equation becomes:
5∑i=15xi2−25576=25194
Moving the mean term to the right, we obtain:
5∑i=15xi2=25194+576=25770
Simplifying this, we find:
5∑i=15xi2=5154⟹i=1∑5xi2=154
Phase 3
The Final Synthesis
We know the total sum of squares for all five observations is 154. Since the fifth observation is 10, the sum of squares of the first four observations plus the square of the fifth must equal the total sum of squares:
Substituting x5=10, we get:
i=1∑4xi2+100=154⟹i=1∑4xi2=54
Now, we apply the variance formula one last time, specifically for the first four observations:
σ42=4∑i=14xi2−(Xˉ4)2
Plugging in our values:
σ42=454−(27)2=454−449=45
The variance of the first four observations is 45 (or 1.25). You have navigated the maze of statistics, isolated the unknown, and reconstructed the properties of the data.