Analyzing the Setup
Imagine you are standing on a long, straight road. Scattered along this road are 201 milestones, labeled x1,x2,…,x201, arranged in perfect, strictly increasing order.
You are tasked with choosing a single point k on this road such that the average distance from k to all these milestones is as small as possible. This is the essence of minimizing the mean deviation.
The Tug-of-War Analogy
Let us define the mean deviation about a point k as:
Since the number of observations n=201 is a constant, our mission is simply to minimize the sum:
Picture yourself standing at point k. If you decide to take a step to the right, you move closer to every milestone located to your right, effectively reducing the distance to those points. However, you simultaneously move further away from every milestone located to your left, increasing those distances.
This is a classic tug-of-war. If there are more milestones to your left than to your right, moving to the right will increase the total distance. If there are more to your right, moving to the right will decrease it.
The only point where this tug-of-war reaches a stalemate—where the total distance is minimized—is the point that perfectly balances the number of milestones on either side. This point is the median.
The Mathematical Proof of the Median
Why does the median win? Consider the derivative of the sum S with respect to k.
The derivative of ∣xi−k∣ is −1 if k<xi and +1 if k>xi. Thus, the derivative of the total sum S is the number of points to the left of k minus the number of points to the right of k.
For the sum to be at a minimum, this derivative must be zero. This happens precisely when the number of points to the left equals the number of points to the right. This is the definition of the median.
The Final Calculation
Now that we have established that k must be the median, we simply need to locate it. For a set of n ordered observations where n is odd, the median is the term at the position:
With n=201, we calculate the position as:
Therefore, the median is the 101st observation in our sequence, which is x101.
By choosing k=x101, we ensure that there are exactly 100 points to the left and 100 points to the right, creating the perfect balance that minimizes the mean deviation. This problem is a beautiful reminder that in statistics, the 'best' measure of central tendency depends entirely on what you are trying to minimize.