Analyzing the Setup
Imagine you are standing in front of a table. On this table sits a bag containing six white balls and four black balls. Beside the bag lies a standard six-sided die.
This is a narrative of uncertainty where the outcome of a die roll dictates the nature of our next action. We will use the Law of Total Probability to weave these disparate scenarios into a single, elegant solution.
The Gatekeeper
The Die Roll
Before we touch the bag, we must roll the die. Let D represent the outcome of this roll.
Since it is a fair die, each outcome i∈{1,2,3,4,5,6} has an equal probability:
We cannot simply guess the outcome; we must respect the randomness of the die as our starting point.
The Conditional Lens
Combinations
Suppose the die shows a specific number i. We are now in a conditional world where we must draw exactly i balls from the bag.
The total number of ways to draw i balls from the ten available is given by the combination formula (i10). We are interested in the success of drawing only white balls, which can be done in (i6) ways.
Thus, the conditional probability of success, given a specific die roll i, is:
P(All White∣D=i)=(i10)(i6)
The Grand Summation
To find the total probability, we sum the probabilities of all mutually exclusive scenarios. The Law of Total Probability states:
P(All White)=i=1∑6P(D=i)×P(All White∣D=i)
Since P(D=i) is a constant 61, we factor it out:
Calculating each term for i=1 to 6:
For i=1: (110)(16)=106=53
For i=2: (210)(26)=4515=31
For i=3,4,5,6, the terms are 61,141,421,and 2101 respectively.
The Final Reveal
Adding these fractions requires a common denominator of 210. Summing the numerators:
The sum is 210252. Finally, we multiply by our factored 61:
We have arrived at the answer. The final probability is 51.